Why I Win -and- Why I Don't

[MardelleDixon]

Why I win % Why I don't
In November of last year, I put together an xl spreadsheet that developed a "Game Score" for each SnG or MTT that I played.

This Game Score combines: 1. % total hands played/hands dealt, 2. % top 12 starting hands multiplied times a strength score for each of the top 12 starting hands (eg AA=21 & AT in early position=3), 3. % Wins per total dealt, and 4. % Wins per total played. The final Game Score is calculated by comparing the current game to the last 3 months average for each of the 1-4 above.

Here's some examples of the kind of data it generates:
November '06 ... Game Score = 87% of previous 3 months average and I placed in the money 46.2% of the time.
December '06 ... GmScr=73% ... ITM=35.1%
January '07 ... GmScr=80% ... ITM=41.5%
In February '07 I started out with 8 straight finishes out of the money...GmScr=68% for games 1-8. I then finished ITM 6 of the next 7 SnG's...GmScr=104% for games 9-15. The hi/lo swing for Feb so far is 149% / 35%.

I've been using this Game Score as a guide to 1. Determine what stakes I want to play at and 2. to determine what sites I can best spend my time at. There are obvious game to game swings in this Game Score but I've found that over time an upward or downward trend becomes evident.

In as much as poker is a game of decisions, I feel like I need to know Why I win (good cards and/or skill) and Why I lose (poor cards and/or mistakes). The Game Score helps.

If anyone would like more info on this, let me know. MD

[Triple B333]

Great stuff Mardelle. I am not so big on statistics and such but it seems as though you have developed a guideline to stick to. While I am not so much on statistics I ask myself this one very important question after everygame. "Did I play skillfully and lose/win cause I made the right decisions, or did I just get lucky." That right there sums it all up for me. I think to myself did I suckout at a crucial moment or did I have my man beat the whole way. Did I overplay my hands and lose potential chips or did I push to avoid suckouts is another good question to ask yourself. Great article Mardelle. I like the part where you sum up a site as in loosness of play and how well you do at that site. Shows im not the only one thinking too much about such a simple game lol. Burke

[Randy C]

Hey Mardelle!

I really like the stats documentation. I am big on documenting all of my stats and looking at trends like yourself.

I'm wondering Mardelle if you'd like to put together an article about the system you use and then send it to me. I'll give it a few months of solid work and then, with your permission, I'll put it on one of the websites as a link so people could try it out for themselves.

I really think you're onto something and it may be a GREAT way of identifying specific areas of progress, trouble spots, and/or hi lo trends. Let me know what you think. Thanks for the post...Great stuff!

All In,

Randy C~

[white22]

I really like trips advice but to take it a step further ask yourself those questions after every hand instead of at the end of the tournament. #1 Did I have him beat the whole way or did I suck out? #2 did I push too hard and could have gotten more chips? #3 should I or did I push to avoid suck outs. When I pay attention to #2 and #3 I really play well. Evaluating my hands and opponents and thinking about the perfect way to play each hands works awesome. The best part about it when u maximize or conserve your chips every hand u can really get in your opponents head which is my ultimate goal make them worried that i have them patterned.

[MardelleDixon]

Update on "Why I Win -and- Why I don't ... Well, February ended with a Game Score of 79% of average and I had to suffer my first losing month in the last 6. Not to my liking but not unexpected either considering the quality of the cards I was dealt. Anyway, I lost $28.20 for the month but didn't see any need for drastic changes...not that I don't make mistakes, I know that I do, but when I look at the minimal loss associated with very poor cards, I don't see a need to change my basic strategy.
March is starting out much better...My game score after 11 SnG's is 91 and would be 98.5 if it weren't for 1 extremely poor tourney (GS=20). Anyway, I'm 9 out of 11 in the money. I've moved up one notch on the stakes since my Game Score is trending upward and my bankroll is building again. I'll post again later when I've seen more of the month's offering at the tables. Good Luck, J.C.

[drzappaman]

Nice perspective. I've been keeping a spread sheet since I first tried Randy's system (sorry it doesn't work for me), but I have learned more about the way I play best. I'm going to go back and calculate the itm for each month since October when I started doing it. I'm up about $400 since I started keeping track (which I realize isn't much for most of you, and my wife snorted that I should be sure to keep my day job).

One of my biggest problems is I somethimes sit down to play when I really don't have 1 1/2-2 hours to commit to a sng. I also find myself playing at a different level table because there aren't enough players at the level I want to play.

And finally much like athletics -- somedays I don't bring my "A" game. I make choices that are just bad and I should know better, or I'm trying to read too much ito the game, or etc.