Post by MD on Sept 30, 2007 22:12:34 GMT -4
In reviewing my records, I discovered that I'm being knocked out of tournaments by bad beats 14.1% of the time (on a net suck out basis). In another 16.1% of the tournaments I enter, I'm getting knocked out after I'm in the money an additional 16.1% of the time.
In an effort to reduce this profit drain, I began to question whether or not I was playing tight enough, especially in the earlier portion of the tournaments. The question I finally settled on was "How many hands could beat my hand by successfully drawing to a higher pair?".
Then I started counting and found that 34% of 73 potential starting hands I thought others might play could beat my pair of Kings...TT could be a 68% dog...AK: 18% dog...KQ: 51% dog and so on...
I have tightened up considerably during the early and mid-phases and reserve my "big hands" for battle only after the show-down rate is 20% or less. I think about anyone would have considered me to be a tight player before but I'm here to tell you that against very loose competitors, I'm so tight now that I squeak.
This appears to be helping...I've been ITM 8 of the last 12 tournaments and have reduced my bad beat rate from 0.407 per tournament played to 0.167.
I'll keep tracing the success of this project and see how it holds up in the long term. I've got it all on an XL spreadsheet so if you want to have a look at it, email me at jcrossfeeds@yahoo.com MD
In an effort to reduce this profit drain, I began to question whether or not I was playing tight enough, especially in the earlier portion of the tournaments. The question I finally settled on was "How many hands could beat my hand by successfully drawing to a higher pair?".
Then I started counting and found that 34% of 73 potential starting hands I thought others might play could beat my pair of Kings...TT could be a 68% dog...AK: 18% dog...KQ: 51% dog and so on...
I have tightened up considerably during the early and mid-phases and reserve my "big hands" for battle only after the show-down rate is 20% or less. I think about anyone would have considered me to be a tight player before but I'm here to tell you that against very loose competitors, I'm so tight now that I squeak.
This appears to be helping...I've been ITM 8 of the last 12 tournaments and have reduced my bad beat rate from 0.407 per tournament played to 0.167.
I'll keep tracing the success of this project and see how it holds up in the long term. I've got it all on an XL spreadsheet so if you want to have a look at it, email me at jcrossfeeds@yahoo.com MD